John B reckoned that the USD dead cat bounce will end in 2009 in the comments here. Going by this chart (USD against basket of currencies 2005 - 2008, click to enlarge) it looks to me like the dead cat bounce is over and USD is on its way down again:
To put that in perspective, USD reached a peak of over 1.2 in early 2002 and has been sliding ever since.
Tuesday 30 December 2008
USD dead cat bounce
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4 comments:
I wonder if the GBP will even have a dead cat bounce?
Good spot. I've not been following $ rates over Dec, as I've been mostly working (first 15 days) and drinking (last 15 days).
Obnoxio: the GBP should be at 1.6ish to the USD, based on PPP and on long-term trends (which works, as our economies are comparably fucked: they have more debt, but we have an older population, and we're more or less the same on everything else including all recession-relevant indicators). Fuck knows where we'll end up against the €, though.
Obo, heck knows if and when, it might take a few years to recover like after White Wednesday.
JB, how's the hangover? You've two more days of boozing to go.
Enjoying them thoroughly, and rounding slightly. Will let you know on Jan 5 re hangover/sobriety.
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