From today's FT:
Sir, Phillip Stephens ("Never mind the recession - save the pound", December 9) claims that, had Britian decided to join the Euro, "the boom would have been moderated, and so would the bust".
From the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2007 official European Central Bank rates were 200 basis points, on average, below those of the Bank of England. It seems patently obvious that had we been a member of the eurozone during those years, the housing market bubble would have been even bigger, debt would have been considerably higher and the bust we are now facing would have been correspondingly blown up.
Oh, and I almost forgot; the exchange rate would not now be cushioning the effect of the housing bust on the economy. In other words, we would not have reduced the amplitude of the UK cycle but would have super-sized it.
Paul Mortimer-Lee, London.
This is not idle theory, BTW, just look at Ireland - they were in the Euro and had an even bigger property price bubble than the UK (despite having a much lower population density and massive expansion of housebuilding!) and they are even further up shit creek than the UK. "Celtic Tiger"? What a joke that turned out to be.
No wonder he's never around
1 hour ago
1 comments:
While prersonally annoying I think the collapse in the £ is probably the best thing to happen to the country. It will give the real economy a competitive edge if the government let it.
As regards Ireland - they went into recession first but a rededdion in a country now 40% better off than us will leave them, at worst 35% better off than us & I would not take bets against them doing considerably better than that.
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