As Tories go, I actually quite like Philip Hammond, who points out that floating a stamp duty suspension without confirming it one way or the other had "created a significant incentive for people to delay the purchase of a property in the hope of avoiding the payment of stamp duty on the transaction. The uncertainty can only undermine the market further, reducing the volume of transactions when they are already at historic lows."
Good logic. But read on ...
Mr Hammond said the government should adopt shadow chancellor George Osborne's "fully-funded" proposal, announced last October, to lift the stamp duty threshold for first-time buyers to £250,000. "This would lift nine out of ten first-time buyers out of stamp duty altogether and provide badly needed assistance to a group who are finding it increasingly difficult to enter the market."
Sorry, he's spoiled it all again now. The last thing that a first-time buyer should be doing is 'entering the market'. My advice to them, FWIW, is wait another couple of years and wait until prices have bottomed out.
Christmas Day: readings for Year C
9 hours ago
4 comments:
Place we looked at about 4 months ago, on for just shy of guide 300k, this week it's down to guide 250k-270k. Being honest 300k was way over the odds even at market peak for what they actually have, 280k might have been a more realistic value, but it shows the cracks are starting to appear. We saw one house in Caterham where the occupants are emigrating early next year, another month or two and they'll be getting very twitchy.
MJW, welcome to the happy world of the sell-to-renters! Time is on our side (for the next few years at least).
How refreshing to find someone else prepared to take the "cruel to be kind" path.
A bubble is a bubble, be it in the South seas, consumer splurging with credit cards or anything else.
Value is determined by supply and demand. If you inflate demand artificially by handing out credit to people who can't afford to repay it you create false demand which forces prices up but it makes no difference to value. House prices are way above true value; I would guess a good 30% in London, probably more.
Tight credit should help to push a lot of air out of the bubble. It will "cost" me a lot of money, but in reality all I will lose is air from my bubble, my house will still be what it is and will have the same true value as ever.
I offered a view on one aspect of it yesterday:
http://thefatbigot.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-not-to-lend-money.html
Good graph here:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
If we're having a sweep-stake on the date for the bottom of the market, I'll go for... May 2010
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