Friday 15 August 2008

Number crunching

Shock! Horror! Only "48% of couples opted for religious weddings" in 2007.

Per a recent YouGov poll "42% of the 2,200 people taking part considered religion had a harmful effect [and only] 28% believed in God".

Hmm.

Assuming no self-selection and that atheists are, by definition, pretty indifferent about their partners' beliefs, then =0.72^2=0.52=52% of couples wouldn't want a Church wedding anyway, as both are atheists.

By subtraction, that leaves 48% where at least one partner is a god-botherer, or, again assuming no self-selection, =0.28^2=0.08=8% of all couples have two religious partners and about =2x(0.28*0.72)=40% of all couples only have a Church wedding because the skye-faerie worshipper drags t'other one down the aisle.

The alternative is to assume that there is self-selection, in which case a maximum of 28% of couples have two religious partners, begging the question, why are 20 out of 72 atheist couples getting married in Church?

8 comments:

sanbikinoraion said...

Because their parents are religious and they are the ones paying for it, perhaps...?

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, possibly, but being religious (or not) is largely a function of what your parents believe in (or not). So I'd guess that my first explanation is the more likely of the two.

Anonymous said...

Continue your calculations with how many couples don't even get married and see where it gets us.

Nick

Mark Wadsworth said...

Nick, good call, but that introduces far too many variables.

neil craig said...

If you assume the same yhat the bride's mother exercises the same influence as the groom on where it takes place (probably an underestimate & that those not getting not getting married are much less likely to be religious you get 4 variables & 0.48 squared can be squared again = 5%. This surprises but pleases me, thiugh precision of that order doesn't really work. But were are clearly a very unbelieving country.

AntiCitizenOne said...

If you were really an atheist it wouldn't matter to you what building you were married in.

Anonymous said...

I know a couple that aren't religious, but got married in a church because it meant the photos would look good.

Anonymous said...

getting married in church solemnises the act.
The government does the rest.