Tuesday 2 October 2007

"Unions mobilised for election"

Journalists love this whole will-he-won't-he stuff, because it is all pure and utter speculation and rumour. I doubt whether even The Goblin King has made up his mind yet.

Anyway, to join in the fun, I think we have to look at this in the wider context: neither party really wants to win the next election.

a) If The Goblin King really wanted to win, he could just say "OK, we'll have a referendum and a General Election in November" and he'd walk it. But he doesn't want a referendum and he doesn't particularly want to be in power when economy goes tits up, which is the trap that Labour sprang on Major back in 1992 and why Labour are still in power now. So he has to hang a bit longer and, using Callaghan as an analogy, call an election in 1978 and LOSE, thus making sure Tories take the rap for the Winter Of Discontent.

b) If Tories really wanted to win, then surely they would have spent the last few years laying into Nulab sleaze and incompetence. But they never bothered. Because they don't want to fall into the same trap as Major either. Which is why they fanny about changing their minds about every topic under the sun. So when the Tories lose, whatever Nulab do, the Tories can honestly say that they said they'd have done the opposite. And I think the Tories will make a referendum part of their manifesto pledge, safe in the knowledge that their bluff will never be called (as the Tories are basically totally in thrall to the EU just as much as Nulab or the LibDems).

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