Tory apologists ...

... always argue (see comments here) that votes for UKIP might cost the Tories seats at the next general election, thus making a referendum on the EU Constitution, Reform Treaty or whatever it's called this week less likely.

Bollocks.

A good way to start an argument is to look at THE FACTS. Let's assume that the final arbiters on whether we get a referendum or not are MPs.

Back in February 2005, when Nulabour had a majority of 167, MPs voted by a majority of 215 that we should have a referendum.

Nulabour's majority fell from 167 to 66 in May 2005.

So, even if votes for UKIP cause 50-plus Tory MPs to lose their seats to Nulabour (thus reinstating Nulabour's majority of approx. 167), what reason is there to assume that MPs would not, by a significant majority, vote again that there should be a referendum?