Saturday 19 March 2022

UBI is nothing radical, it's just an administrative tidying up exercise

Some people are against the idea of any welfare payments whatsoever, there's no point in debating with them, they have missed the whole point. Most people are vaguely in favour of welfare in some forms or in general but oppose UBI.

* The hard left vaguely grasp that UBI is negative taxation, so they want it means tested and focused on low-income recipients; that means that higher earners pay more in tax and/or receive less in UBI (modest tax rebates). I suppose that's intelletually coherent, even though expressed badly and not really thought through.

* The hard right are more in favour of the contributory principle, which is the opposite of means-testing and pointless. If you take this to the logical conclusion, you might as well just tax people less when they are earning and expect them to save up for the bad times. Most will, some won't, tough.

*Then of course there are the outright authoritarians with no grasp of maths or logic who support both means-testing AND the contributory principle.

* Many UBI supporters make a different glaring - and rather embarrassing - error, which is to assume that this would be a radical overhaul and/or would require additional taxes.

Nothing of the sort. The UK's tax and welfare systems, if viewed in the round, are already pretty close to UBI, so the easiest way to introduce UBI is by administrative stealth. The DWP and HMRC could simply merge all working age benefits into a single benefit and do claw-backs via PAYE. They can keep the old names and attach different conditions if they want to maintain the pretence and keep the authoritarians happy, but really it's just UBI.

Let's take a few major working age benefits. How different are they really?

* Income Support and Carer's Allowance are to all intents and purposes the same thing, just with different qualifying conditions. £60 to £75 a week for a single adult. No time limit.
* Statutory Maternity Pay is up to £151 a week for 39 weeks.
* Student Loans are £8,000 - £12,000 a year for up to three years. These loans are supposed to be repaid via a savagely higher tax rate if you are over certain income thresholds, so combine the worst aspects of debt and higher taxes. Maybe only half ever gets repaid, so they might as well just give students £4,000  a year and tell them to keep it.
* Working Tax Credits for lower earners. This is largely smoke and mirrors. To qualify, you have to work a certain number of hours i.e. earn a certain amount of money i.e. they are paying some PAYE and reclaiming a similar amount in WTC. In net terms, it pushes up the tax-free personal allowance up to about £15,000.

What do all these have in common? People who (probably) aren't earning much get a bit of extra money. People are all people; money is just money.

They could simply set the weekly rate for all these benefits at whatever £ amount is required to keep total expenditure on all these groups constant, probably somewhere in the region of £80 a week [see footnote] and pretty much abandon all the qualifying conditions. If you get this £ amount correct, it would of course require no increase in tax rates on earnings (which are far too high anyway).

As to means-testing, if the purpose of this is to minimise total expenditure, then we have to remember the Laffer Curve. If the clawback rate is too high (overall clawback rates of 80% - 100% are not uncommon) then people who can only reasonably expect to earn minimum wage £10 an hour gross won't bother. If the clawback rate is too low, then clearly nominal expenditure will be high.

So why not set the official clawback rate at 40%-odd, which is
a) close to the tax-raising/expenditure clawback maximum on the Laffer Curve and
b) happens to be total clawback PAYE rate, including income tax and two layers of NIC, for basic rate taxpayers? We wouldn't need a separate means-testing system. UBI claimants just get a BR PAYE code (with an extra tick in the box for 'liable to NIC on all earnings') which means they get 40%-odd deducted from their wages at source.

For mothers with young kids, it's a two-edged sword, the weekly amount would be maybe half as much, but they could extend the qualifying period of 39 weeks up to 36 months (or until youngest child has reached school age or whatever), and also roll the Childcare Element of WTC back into Child Benefit and make Child Benefit £50 per child per week (instead of a miserly £20-odd for most people plus £60-odd WTC for the lower half), so overall, what they lose on the swings they gain on the roundabouts.

Once people have wised up to this, claimants wouldn't go through the bother of... claiming pseudo-SMP and having to provide children's birth certificates; claiming pseudo-Carer's Allowance and providing details of the elderly or disabled person they are 'caring for' for 35 hours a week; claiming pseudo-student grants and providing proof of what course they are doing at what Uni etc.

They'd just all go for the pseudo-WTC/Income Support option by ticking the box saying "I expect to earn a gross wage of less than £1,250 a month for the remainder of this tax year", provide home address, NI number, copy of passport or driving licence (for checking identities - the only possible fraud in a UBI system is multiple claims by one person) and job done.

And if pseudo-WTC claimants are lying and they know they are earning more than £15,000? So what? Most would be stupid to do so, as the extra PAYE/NIC they would have deducted would be slightly more than their pseudo-WTC. Some people would voluntarily do this if they know they will be working part-time, seasonally, on zero-hours contracts etc. At least they have some regular income, however small - the fact that they extra earnings when working are a bit less than otherwise is a price worth paying, a kind of self-insurance.

Of course, there are some people who currently don't bother working because their spouse or partner earns enough for both of them, they could claim as well. Again, so what? This is much the same as a transferable personal allowance, assuming the couple pool their income, it's like giving the working partner a double-personal allowance (most countries still have joint-taxation of couples). And if claimants 'waste' their £80 a week on going to the beauty salon or dining out more often, that's good for the lower paid people in beauty salons and resturants (so they'd be paying more tax and the government gets most of it back indirectly).

To keep the authoritarians and meddlers happy, they could make the forms seem really complicated, do occasional spot checks and occasionally throw some claimants under the bus to generate the required headlines for the bloodthirsty Daily MailExpressGraph crowd and the Guardian/Mirror hand-wringers. This is all smoke and mirrors - apart from genuine admin screw-ups, the worst that can happen is they stop somebody's pseudo-Carer's Allowance or SMP and pay them pseudo-WTC instead.

And because the claw back rate is relatively low, they can generate a lot of positive statistics showing how many claimants are actually working and how much this saves the taxpayer. That should keep most people happy.

Here endeth this week's rant. Why do so few people undertand all this?

Footnote: Quite how high you think the weekly £ amount 'should' be depends largely on where you sit on the political/economic spectrum and whether you would roll in housing related benefits. I personally would go for about £120/week and scrap Housing and Council Tax Benefit. If you are hard right, the weekly amount would be £zero.

9 comments:

Sobers said...

The trouble is however much you try, there will always be losers in such a fundamental change in the system, because you are talking about the interaction of complex means tested systems with tens of millions of people's lives. There will always be someone somewhere who loses out, badly. And the one thing I think is pretty clear that any changes to welfare that result in losers are politically dead in the water. No government wants to have a series of hard cases paraded in front of the media and have to justify why some poor unfortunate is having their money reduced. Look at the furore over the 'bedroom tax'. You just can't do 'big bang' changes to welfare in western democracies any more, if you ever could. The only way is a softly softly catchee monkey approach, whereby old claimants can stay as they are, and new claimants are put onto the new system. Rather as Universal Credit was introduced. Its taken over a decade for UC to be introduced and its still not actually universal yet.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, there have been several fairly radical changes to welfare and state pensions over the last ten or so years that I'm aware of. And I'm sure this is not atypical.

All the protests fizzled out and people just got used to it. The most strident were the WASPs, they were just ignored and now they have shut up.

Most claimants are on IS or CA, they won't notice the change.

Student loans/grants would be introduced from start of next academic year - most of the loans go on rent, so landlords will just have to drop their rents. Or students will have to find part-time and summer jobs.

Give it a year or two, we will be asking why students got more money than the unemployed or apprentices, or why SMP was limited to such a short period etc.

Some mums go back to work in a month or two. Some stay at home until youngest is at school and then they go part-time. Having a time limit just forces people to make sub-optimal decisions.

People adjust far more quickly than you think.

SMP change could be announced a year in advance, combined with higher ChB, it comes to much the same thing.

All this means-testing is just complicated maths. What really matters to people is the net extra they get. That would barely change.

Etcetera.

L fairfax said...

No one who is renting their own place in the South East could do so on £6K a year (assuming that rents don't fall).
Although I assume that you know this already.

Bayard said...

LF, given that rents are based on what people can afford to pay, why do you think that they wouldn't fall, and quickly?

L fairfax said...

@Bayard,
That might be true on average. However I can't believe in many parts of London they would fall that much.
There are plenty of people who for example are paying £120 pw for a room who would move to flats/houses if their current housing benefit tenants had to leave!
Saying that I think it is a good idea.

Lola said...

I had an opportunity to go the local Tory MP's get together on Friday last to discuss 'benefits'. I was getting all fired up and briefing myself to have a go, and then I thought, sod it. What's the bloody point..

Mark Wadsworth said...

LF, sure.

a) My preferred answer is "social housing", it's far cheaper to give somebody a rent free council flat than to pay their private rents.

b) As B says, rents would fall.

c) There are plenty of parts of the country where two or three claimants could club together and rent something privately. Why make a special case for London? is an unemployed person in London more deserving than an unemployed person in Leeds?

d) If all the claimants move out, then people who need/can afford to pay the now lower rents in London will do so = economically efficient. Plus why shouldn't 'the system' favour people who have a job?

L, depressing but that's the way it goes.

L fairfax said...

I always thought that c and d are true but millions don't agree with me.

Mark Wadsworth said...

LF, c) and d) are simply true. Some don't like the logic or the outcome, doesn't stop them being true.