Tariff Doublethink

From the BBC:

A no-deal Brexit could cost the farming industry £850m a year in lost profits, new research seen by the BBC suggests...

OK, enlighten us.

Farm business consultants Andersons said that without government support increasing significantly, some farms would inevitably struggle to survive. The government says it will "provide direct support to boost some sectors in the unlikely event this is required".

We own land! Give us money!

Under a no-deal Brexit, farms could have to pay a tariff on goods exported to the EU for the first time. Lamb and live sheep exports could face tariffs of 45-50%, while trade and farming groups say some cuts of beef could see tariffs of more than 90%. If European firms suddenly start having to pay more for UK meat, the fear is they could quickly switch to suppliers in other countries.

Tariffs are bad for the exporter then, OK.

Other so-called "non-tariff barriers", like extra veterinary and customs checks at the border, could also increase costs to farmers.

Non-tariff barriers are also bad, OK.

"It could wipe out the sheep industry in Northern Ireland," farmers Jo and Lindsay Best, from County Antrim, told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme. "A large percentage of our sheep are exported into France and the Republic of Ireland, and the price of feed could go up as well. It could decimate both the sheep and cattle industry here."

Why would the price of feed go up? Not clear.

Farms already receive more than £3.5bn a year in EU subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

We own land! Give us money!

Under a no-deal Brexit, dairy exports would attract higher tariffs and other restrictions which, it is feared, could lead to an oversupply of milk in the UK and falling prices. At the same time, tariffs on imports from outside the EU could be cut substantially, meaning British farmers would face competition from low-cost butter and cheese made overseas.

So tariffs are bad, but low or zero tariffs are just as bad. Make up your minds.

Colin Ferguson, who runs his own herd of 200 dairy cattle on the Machars peninsula in south-west Scotland, said that would be his "biggest concern". "[Produce from overseas] doesn't need to meet the high welfare or production standards that we conform to, therefore our market gets undermined by cheap produce and the consumer quite rightly will buy the cheapest item on the shelf," he added.

So, non-tariff barriers are good?

The research by Andersons shows the impact of a no-deal Brexit will not be felt equally across the industry. Lamb and beef farming are likely to be hardest hit, especially in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Other businesses - like fruit and vegetables, pigs and poultry - could see modest increases in profitability as rivals like Danish bacon attract import tariffs and become more expensive.

So tariffs are good?

Here's a thought, everything will adjust. UK farmers will probably export less, but UK consumers will import less, so it balances out. The UK is only about two-thirds self-sufficient in food, so we can easily consume the entire UK farming industry's output. So lower "food miles" as well, which is surely A Good Thing? And maybe those sheep or dairy farmers can move into fruit and vegetables, pigs and poultry?