Thursday, 15 August 2019

Remainer MPs - couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery

First write down what you know:

a) My general impression is that a majority of MPs, however slim, are Remainers.

b) We know that the Tories are by far and away the largest party, and with the support of the DUP they have a majority of 1.

c) Jeremy Corbyn thinks that if he can trigger a vote of no confidence, that he will somehow end up as PM. Most Remainer MPs have told him to get stuffed.

Therefore the only workable plan (from a Remainer MP point of view) is to trigger a vote of no confidence. Johnson would clearly lose it, as it would only require a few Tory MPs (i.e. Remainers) to vote against him (let's assume all non-Tory/DUP MPs vote against him) and then MPs have the opportunity to choose a new PM. Those are the rules.

The chosen new PM has to tick two boxes:

a) A Remainer.

b) A Tory (they are the largest party etc).

Remainer MPs - even non-Tory Remainers - would be daft not to vote for him/her, as the alternative is leaving Johnson in place; let's rule out Corbyn as PM, that's not happening. Half of his own MPs wouldn't vote for him. The Lib Dems, SNP et al are all saying "Ooh, avoiding a cliff edge Brexit is the most important issue facing this country today". Well, either it is or it isn't, but if it is, then hold your noses and vote for a Tory.

Tory MPs - even Leavers - would be daft not to vote for him/her, as the alternative would probably be a General Election, which most of them don't want to risk.


Lola said...

My arithmetic too. But which Tory Remainer would be able to 'command a majority of the House of Commons' and claim to be able to form a government and be acceptable to a coalition of Remainer Labour MP's, Libdems, Chuka and Soubry's lot, the SNP etc?

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, if they can't agree a candidate, then Johnson will stay as pm and do the opposite of what they want. Their call.

Mark Wadsworth said...

There are plenty of Tory remainer moderate MPs.

Bayard said...

Ken Clarke?

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, for example. Or Phil Hammond. Or Sarah Wollaston if she hadn't bounced via TIG to the Lib Dems. Not my decision.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, well done, you called it.

Swindon has just proposed K Clarke (or H Harman, rather bizarrely).

Lola said...

MW or both Clarke and Harmon as joint PM's, apparently? Bizarre.

The Stigler said...

The problem is that they don't like Corbyn as the alternative option, and most Labour MPs know that the Corbyn gang will destroy their careers if they pick someone else. I'm sure the LDs, SNP and Plaid could form a group, but that ain't going to do much damage. Plus there's the whole problem of many Labour MPs sitting in hard leave areas.

Meanwhile, the combined power of Brexit Party and Conservative associations is going to get nearly every Conservative MP to back no deal now.

Mark Wadsworth said...

TS, Corbyn is a non runner. It has to be a Tory MP, those are the rules.