Friday, 7 December 2018

Clean Brexit 'Cliff Edge' Fallacy

The fallacy of the 'cliff edge' when (if?) we leave the EU without a 'deal' with it.

Evidence 1.  Chat with major insurer underwriting admin. bod in Major Corporates business.  They are targeting having all their contracts sorted out to accommodate EU and UK law by 1st January 2019

Evidence 2. M&G sorting out their funds https://www.mandg.co.uk/investor/articles/reminder-planned-fund-suspensions/

I just bet that all those supposedly 'fragile' supply chains will also be sorted out well in time as well.

Markets always eventually sort out the chaos caused by bureaucrats - if they are left alone to do so.

7 comments:

Mark Wadsworth said...

Good background info!

Shiney said...

And I could tell you about all the 'onshoring' enquiries/business we have been getting but I'm not allowed to. Oh, and new business for 2019 already booked from 'Europe' is best it has been for a long while - so they don't seem worried either.

I guess out here in the real world we just get on and do 'stuff' rather than sitting in meetings all day.

Lola said...

S. MW. Those that are passing breeze blocks about their futures are all the bureaucrats in EU UK client agencies who will be jobless (htey are pointless now) post March 29 2019.

Mike W said...

Good article here. What do you think Paul C156? I know. You were number 5,760 to be enraged by the very idea? Couldn't wade through the outrage myself! Could you summerize it for me? :)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/respect-eu-britain-outside-left-economy

Russell said that he put Voltaire by the Bible on his bookshelf. 'Poison and Antidote'. I now read this Elliot article in the Guardian, everytime I finish a Simon Wren-Lewis Remain post on his blog.

Summary as follows:

Simon (of the downwards, 'knowledge transmission mechanism') says:

'Just say NO to the Proles'

Save you reading all his posts, Paul, Fairs, fair.

Physiocrat said...

French customs checks on passengers on a day trip to Dieppe will do not good for the town's summer trade. I wonder if the locals will be putting on yellow jackets and protesting outside the ferry terminal?

The Isle of Wight could be one of the winners, though.

Mike W said...

PS,

https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2018/12/09/wynne-godley-the-man-who-saw-through-the-euro/

Ever get tired of re-reading Wynne? Nope. I notice the original article has now gone under a pay wall!

Anyway, perhaps Rothschild Macron never told all those French proles in Yellow vests they were actually supposed to be rushing around Europe, competeing with all the Greek youngster for jobs in Germany, not burning fucking Paris!


Still

Liberty=NeoLib Serfdom
Equality= NeoLib Serfdom,
Fraternity= NeoLib Serfdom

As the great French novelist, Serge Orwell once wrote.

'May Day' celebrations in London next year? One way or another I suppose.

Robin Smith said...

Quite right. When it's finally sorted, in whatever way, people will realise the only problem was that government had gotten in the way again. And with renewed confidence will forge ahead into the next boom now the protectionist institutions we call government are out of the way. That's all there is to it. It's possible Brexit has been the factor in this business cycle which has tamped down the timing of the next boom quite nicely. Funny old thing nature and it's unconscious power.