Sunday, 11 November 2012

More QE insanity

From The Daily Mail:

The Chancellor has bagged a £35bn windfall that will reduce public borrowing by reclaiming the surplus cash sitting in the Bank of England's £375bn quantitative easing programme.

The change in policy will cut both the public debt and budget deficit, flattering the public finance figures when the Office for Budget Responsibility updates its outlook at the Chancellor’s Autumn statement next month.

Critics immediately accused George Osborne of fiddling the books, but the Treasury insisted that the move will draw Britain into line with the US and Japan, which also have big QE programmes.

Under the current arrangement, the interest paid on the gilts bought through QE is held by the Bank – effectively transferring the funds from one part of the state to another. As long as the funds remain at the Bank, though, the Treasury has to raise extra borrowing in the market.


Once past the idiot headline and opening paragraph, as the article says, this transaction nets off to nothing and "spending" this extra £35 billion merely means that the government has to borrow another £35 billion from elsewhere (assuming constant government spending - that is the real problem, not how it is financed).

It's like the underlying bonds themselves, they are a nullity, a nothing, an accounting fiction, a point which I'm relieved to say, seventy per cent of respondents understand. Those bonds are no longer real debts, what are real are the replacement debts of £375 billion which the government issued in exchange.

George Osborne might as well argue that the government can save itself £35 billion by cancelling the interest payments on the QE bonds now held by the Bank of England, that would be just as moronic. Describing somebody who points this out as a "critic" shows how desperate they are, these "critics" are merely stating blindingly obvious facts (even though many people oppose QE because they think it increases deficits - it does nothing of the sort, it is merely a way of financing or re-financing government deficit spending, whether past, present or future).

Via HPWatcher at HPC.

5 comments:

Unknown said...

This all arises because of the longstanding anomaly in the way the UK does their accounts and every other country. I've been pointing out for over a year that the anomaly makes the UK fiscal deficit look higher vis-a-vis other countries who did things different. The Chancellor obviously agrees but more like someone has told him and falling into line with everyone else makes him look better.

No one other than the UK counted Treasury interest payments to their own central bank as part of the nominal fiscal deficit. As you say because they are both parts of the same government the interest offsets while the BoE APF hold the assets.

I thought it would be the Telegraph Jeremy Warner piece that would provoke you to respond. Sheer mind-numbing tripe that he updated by backtracking on the tripe that he had originally written.

If the UK is going to permanently correct this anomaly rather than just a temporary fix then it will lower the UK fiscal deficit until interest rates start to rise. However, I bet they do not correct the other UK anomaly compared to everyone else. Every other country counts treasury bills as part of their stock of debt and the UK does not. If they corrected that anomaly the UK national debt would go up by around £57 billion.

They will not spend the 'windfall' as such so it does absolutely nothing for spending. However, they will issue fewer securities so there is a small monetary easing. The ratio of private sector cash to assets is adjusted causing monetary policy to be slightly looser.

Mark Wadsworth said...

RW, ta for extra info.

"No one other than the UK counted Treasury interest payments to their own central bank as part of the nominal fiscal deficit... Every other country counts treasury bills as part of their stock of debt and the UK does not. "

In that case they were totally insane to start with. The BoE records coins and notes in issue, quite correctly, as liabilities. Are they excluded from the national debt as well?

Derek said...

Seen the latest ?

Mark Wadsworth said...

D, that's modern politics for you. Tell a big lie, and then stick to it through thick and thin until the doubters like me get shouted down.

Bayard said...

It's not a lie is it? Don't tell me I can't get rich by loaning myself money and living off the interest....