Monday 5 December 2011

Not true; true; missing the point completely.

Allister Heath rants on in today's City AM:

If anything, today’s problem is even greater than that: it is clear from the global government debt crisis that fiat money – currencies entirely detached from any commodity or anchor and produced entirely at the discretion of government agencies – has failed. (1)

Its adoption has abolished all restraints on governments and has meant that currencies keep being devalued and inflated away.(2) Eventually, we will need a new monetary system more in tune with the principles of capitalism and sound money – until then, expect tensions between central bankers and governments to rise and rise.(3)


1) Not true. Although superficially a government cannot finance itself by handing out bits of paper, on the facts it works surprisingly well.

Sometimes governments introduce paper currencies by accident, and people work out how to use them: for example, food rationing vouchers. Ignoring undeclared production and the grey market, we know that each household or each person has different preferences, so those people who don't need to redeem the full value of their vouchers can sell them to those people who want more than their state-allocated ration. So the former group sells their surplus vouchers to the latter group.

You can see handing out the vouchers as a universal benefit/Citizen's Income as well as a tax on buying food; if you want more, you have to pay somebody for their surplus vouchers.

2) True. So although the physical vouchers have no intrinsic value, the fact that the government does not just create them but also taxes them away again gives them value. And the same basic principle applies to any paper currency: as long as the government is not running a deficit (i.e. it is printing/spending at the same rate as it is taxing/collecting them) the value of the vouchers is largely stable.

It is only when the government prints more vouchers/bank notes/government bonds than it is collecting back in again (as taxes) that the value of vouchers is diluted.

3) Missing the point completely. I'm no big fan of deficit spending as a long term plan, and would prefer UK government spending to be reduced by about a quarter*, down to the level of taxes it currently collects (easily do-able if you chuck out all the theft and waste).

But government deficits (to which there is always an equal and opposite asset, such as money deposited with National Savings & Investments or held in the form of government bonds or even bank notes and coins) are not the largest debts of all; the total value of outstanding debts secured on land and buildings (and the corresponding assets) are about twice as much* by volume.

As illustrated above, government debts are secured on publicly collected taxes and mortgage debts are secured on privately collected taxes, i.e. ground rents. The total value of UK ground rents has barely increased over the last ten or fifteen years*, so how come the total value of mortgage debts has doubled or trebled*? That's where the bulk of your [monetary] inflation comes in.

* Don't quote me on the exact fractions and percentages, I'm talking ball park figures here.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Mark,

M4 grew from 800bn (around 1999) to 2.2 T (2010) and there is where you monetary inflation are. And indeed, bulk of those were mortgage debts.

Gordon's borrowing did not quite become M4 until BoE QE them (so now there is £275bn + 50 odds billion, so £325bn ish of them)

However, Alaistair is talking about an anchor, without an anchor (and a BoE with inflation linked pensions), this sort of things will get out of control. BoE governor must not have inflation linked pension if they are expected to control inflation !

EBM

Mark Wadsworth said...

EBM, if you ask me, any distintion between M0, M1, M2 is highly artificial and hence meaningless, as one kind of money can easily be swapped for another kind.

I made that point about not index linking government pensions, if it were up to me, they'd be negatively linked to inflation, including house price inflation.

AH knows only one type of anchor - light taxation of land and loads-a-money for the City of London. That is his whole belief system.

QP said...

So let me try to get this straight:

Broad money (M4) has increased mainly down to huge increases in mortgage debt secured on land values that were increasing *because* of the increase in mortgage debt. i.e. a Ponzi scheme.

The level of debt to GDP (the productive economy) got unsustainable and led to a financial system collapse.

Government debt increased because of a collapse in tax revenue from the financial sector and the rest of the economy that went down with it. Plus bailing out the banks.

A symptom of the economic depression is that Broad money decreases because people start paying down their debts rather than take out more credit.

BoE trys to increase broad money by increasing base money (M0). But is does not necessarily follow that M0->M4. M4 supply (money creation) is driven by private debt and private banks rather than the central banks.

Please correct me if you think this is wrong.

Mark Wadsworth said...

QP, first two para's correct.

Third para incorrect. Tax receipts did not 'collapse'. Economy shrank by 5% and tax receipts fell by 5%, let's say £25 billion, that only explains a way a very small part of sudden in increase in deficits from £50 billion to over £150 billion a year. That £100 billion was partly bailing out banks but also corporatist looting generally. A small part, maybe £5 billion or £10 billion was additional unemployment benefit.

Fourth and fifth para's correct.

dearieme said...

" not index linking government pensions, if it were up to me": bah, you stodgy old conservative. Scrap government pensions and enlist them all in NEST.

Mark Wadsworth said...

D, bad plan. If these people put their own money into NEST, then they will make sure that share prices get pumped up via, er, inflation or more tax breaks for certain types of pension saving arrangements.

Better to have a nominal cash pension, and if inflation is (say) 3% then the cash value of the pension gets CUT by 3%. Payment by results in other words.

And NEST is a load of shit anyway.

Bayard said...

AFAIK, civil service pensions are not index-linked. A civil servant past retirement age gets n/80ths of the salary of a civil servant of his grade at retirement, where n is the number of years served. Thus, if you stop increasing civil service salaries, you will stop increasing civil service pensions. AFAIK, civil service salaries aren't index-linked either.

Lola said...

I think that both MW and AH are 'right', for what looks to me like complementary reasons. They seem to be discussing the same thing from differents ends and coming to the same conclusion.

I think that Fiat money has failed (is failing) and MW pts 1 and 2 and sort of the same thing.

I also think that MW Point three is correct, but so is the statement to which it referenced. Again they are two sides of the same coin.

dearieme said...

@Bayard: HMG
"Please note that Civil Service pensions will be index linked according to
the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from April 2011. Instead of the Retail
Prices Index (RPI)
nuvos pensions will also be uprated annually using the CPI."

Bayard said...

D, I stand (sit) corrected.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, I think D is correct. But even if you were correct, a civil servant's pensions would still effectively be index linked up to the date of retirement, because its based on his final salary grade, which will almost certainly be increased with inflation, and then some.

L, his statement might be correct in itself, but he is still missing the point. I agree with him on point (2) only. He is an arch-Home-Owner-Ist and cheerleader for the financial services sector. Fair enough, that is his job as editor of CityAM, he is a lobbyist.

So he blames everything on government deficits, which are indeed bad things, but he refuses to accept that a large part of government deficits are because they are bailing out mortgage borrowers and lenders, in other words, what they are doing is like NEGATIVE Land Value Tax. Inflation and bail outs are just taxes on the productive economy to support rent seekers.