Tuesday 17 May 2011

Absolutely bizarre

From The Metro, earlier today:

Rome officials are preparing for thousands of residents to leave the city today amid widespread fears of an earthquake - which was apparently predicted by seismologist Raffaele Bendandi more than 30 years ago. [He] made a series of predictions that the Italian capital would be destroyed by a huge quake on May 11th 2011, which would be followed by two more events next year.

Bendandi's reputation for accuracy was cemented by his correct prediction of a similar earthquake in 1923 that killed more than 1,000 people. The meteorologist, who died in 1979, was honoured by former Italian leader Benito Mussolini in 1927 and he is so respected in Italy that his prediction of today's events has led to mass panic in Rome...


From the BBC, later this evening:

At least 10 people were killed after a magnitude 5.3 earthquake toppled several buildings in southern Spain, near the town of Lorca, officials say.

The quake struck at a depth of just 1km (0.6 miles), some 120km south-west of Alicante, at 1850 (1650 GMT), the US Geological Survey reported. Lines of cars lay crushed under tonnes of rubble and a hospital was evacuated as a precaution...


Apart from the fact the earthquake was a thousand miles to the west (not a huge distance in tectonic terms), was Bendandi really on to something or is this just a blind coincidence?

8 comments:

banned said...

What would be the chances of a mid sized earthquake somewhere within a thousand miles of Rome on any given day?

Did Raffaele Bendandi make any predictions for San Fransisco which is gonna be a gonner someday soon.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B: "What would be the chances of a mid sized earthquake somewhere within a thousand miles of Rome on any given day?"

One in several thousand. How many earthquakes have there been within that radius in the last ten years? One or two?

"Did Raffaele Bendandi make any predictions for San Fransisco which is gonna be a gonner someday soon?"

I dunno, but sure as heck the San Fransicans will be looking it up as we speak.

James Higham said...

He might well have been accurate but there are other scenarios for the end of Rome.

dearieme said...

Did anyone leave Rome and fly to Alicante just to be on the safe side?

Anonymous said...

In the last week, there have been 3 earthquakes in Europe. See US Geological Survey.

As well as the one you mentioned, there was a magnitude 5.1 in Greece on Sunday, and a magnitude 3.4 in Macedonia, also on Sunday.

Do I win a prize for web research? :)

Steven_L said...

I thought it was next year when the poles swap ends and we all fall into the chasm?

Mark Wadsworth said...

JH, I'm an atheist.

AC, yes you do win a prize, is it really that many? So in other words the whole thing was just a coincidence. Can't say whether I'm more relieved or more disappointed.

D, I would say 'probably' but then Adam C will research online and find out that nobody did.

SL, ask Adam, he'll look it up for you.

formertory said...

That's a bit like arguing that I forecast a winning horse at Epsom, but it doesn't run and a different one wins at Derby instead :-) . The bookies may be less than impressed when I look for my winnings.

(If this reply in any way demonstrates my total ignorance of horse racing, that's OK).