A good summary of the figures at Sky News:
... Government accounts showed that the amount of tax collected plummeted by £32bn last year... Corporation tax takings plunged by 14.1%, VAT by 15.9% and income tax by 3.9%.
Part of the VAT shortfall can be explained by the fact that the rate went down from 17.5% to 15% of course, but £32 billion (about 5% of total receipts) looks 'about right', seeing as the economy contracted by something approaching 5%, so big deal, really.
But public spending rose again, with social benefit outlays up 9.7% to £13.3bn [as] more people claimed unemployment benefit.
OK, welfare spending up £1.2 billion in a month, that's £14 billion annualised, a hike of about 20% in non-pensions welfare spending, so again, big deal.
Let's assume that the economy now flatlines, we'd expect an additional deficit of around £50 billion (i.e. £32 billion less tax and £14 billion more welfare spending), which is 3% of GDP, pretty bad, but not the end of the world.
This is the deeply worrying bit, right at the end of the article, almost as an afterthought:
Chancellor Alistair Darling predicts net borrowing over the year hit £175bn - economists say £190bn is more likely.
We'll have to live with £50 billion of that, the question is, what on earth are they spending the other £140 billion on, about ten per cent of GDP? The obvious answer "more quangos and malinvestment and crap" is almost certainly the correct one.
Tuesday, 21 July 2009
Yup, as predicted.
My latest blogpost: Yup, as predicted.Tweet this! Posted by Mark Wadsworth at 15:42
Labels: Government spending, Recession, Taxation, Waste
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