From the BBC:
Local government is due to take charge of schemes to tackle lifestyle problems like obesity and excess drinking from 2013 under the shake-up of the NHS... But the Health Committee said there was a risk councils would play the system and use the funds for other purposes - something denied by town hall bosses...
But within two years more than 150 directors of public health will move into local government, taking a pot of money - widely expected to be about £4bn* - with them. To ensure it is spent on health-related projects, the government has agreed to ring-fence the money.
But the report by the cross-party group of MPs said there was a risk councils - which are facing budget cuts of over a quarter in the next four years - would play the system. The MPs said they could redesignate services like filling in potholes and gritting the roads when it is icy as a public health measure, arguing they helped to reduce hospital admissions.
Good stuff so far, instead of employing bansturbators, they'll be filling in potholes and gritting the roads, this is what local councils are for, n'est-ce pas?
But committee chairman Stephen Dorrell said it would not be an effective use of the money.
Words fail.
* Yes, that's £4,000 million pounds a year to be spent on "tackling lifestyle problems", a programme which was announced at around the same time that the Lib-Cons hiked tuition fees by £6,000 a year, a measure which is hoped will raise about £4,000 million a year. I'm not sure that subsidising Higher Education is the best use of public money, but it's hardly on the same level as "tackling lifestyle problems".
Wednesday, 2 November 2011
Insanity
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
12:58
12
comments
Labels: Bansturbation, Holes, Insanity, NHS, Waste
"Maybe she thought she was playing for Uddersfield Town!"
From The Daily Mail:
Two teams of amateur footballers were left baffled by an unusual pitch invasion after their match was interrupted by a cow.
The two-tonne beast startled players during the match in Potterspury, Bucks, after wandering into the thick of the action. And not content with holding up play, the bovine pitch invader even committed a red card offence by charging at both teams before relieving himself 25 yards from goal...
Yup, one single udderless cow (also known as "a bull") can easily intimidate 23 grown, healthy men, plus onlookers - but should the Mail really be reminding cattle of the disruption they could cause if they put their minds to it?
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
12:05
5
comments
Prescription painkillers cause more deaths than heroin and cocaine
From The LA Times:
Overdose deaths from abuse of prescription painkillers in the U.S. now outnumber deaths involving heroin and cocaine combined, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Tuesday.
In 2008, drug overdoses caused 36,450 deaths in the U.S. One or more prescription drugs were involved in 20,044 of these deaths, CDC researchers wrote in the journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Opioid pain relievers, including oxycodone, methadone and hydrocodone, were involved in 14,800...
In 2010, 4.8% of Americans 12 years or older used opioid pain relievers nonmedically -- that is, without a prescription or purely for the feeling the drug causes. The report calculated that by 2010, "enough opioid pain relievers were sold to medicate every American adult with a typical dose of 5 mg of hydrocodone every four hours one month."
That last bit doesn't make sense, why "one month" right at the end, but I think what they mean is a lot of painkillers were sold.
Unfortunately, even though this is a splendid headline, the simple comparison between number of deaths caused by X and by Y is fairly meaningless unless we know the number of people taking X and the number taking Y. It may well be that two hundred million Americans take painkillers every day, but only (say) ten million people use heroin or cocaine, in which case the latter are still more dangerous (on a personal level) than legally available painkillers.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
07:38
7
comments
Labels: Cocaine, Heroin, statistics, USA
Tuesday, 1 November 2011
Japanese Yen Intervention
Steve_L did a post on AUD/USD, which reminded me that six weeks ago I remarked that JPY looks a bit on the high side as well.
The BoJ finally intervened in the currency markets a day or so ago, and allegedly pushed down the value of JPY by around 5 cents against USD.
1. If we look at JPY against a basket of currencies, yesterday's move does not look spectacular on a five-year chart, if anything, JPY had been drifting down since my earlier post, from 1.20 to 1.17 last Sunday, it's about 1.14 as at today (click to enlarge):
2. The question is always: does the BoJ time its interventions to reinforce an existing downward move or do insiders cash in on a planned intervention, thus precipitating the downward move?
3. The other question is, how dumb are some people at the BBC? They mentioned it on Radio 4 yesterday morning, and the reporter announced quite earnestly that the BoJ has got lots of foreign currency reserves which it can spend to intervene in the currency markets. EPIC FAIL! A central bank only needs foreign currency reserves if it wants to prop up its own currency (see Black Wednesday) because you have to sell those reserves and buy your own currency; if a central bank wants to depress the value of its own currency, it does this by selling its own currency (which is can print at will) and using it to buy foreign currencies.
Or you can do like the wily insanely mercantilist Chinese or Germans and instead of printing your own currency, actually manufacture stuff that people in other countries want, sell it to them, and then lend them back their own money - because swapping their currency back into yours would push up your own currency and hence make it more difficult to export. Of course, beyond a certain stage, that small bit of marginal extra income you can earn from exporting gets wiped out by the constant erosion of the value of your foreign currency reserves, but hey...
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
21:53
7
comments
Labels: Currencies, Japan, JPY, Speculation, USD
Go compare!
Starting off a song with the chorus/refrain is known in songwriters' circles as "doing a Bon Jovi"
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
20:02
0
comments
Labels: Advertising, Insurance, Music, Warfare
Killer Arguments Against LVT, Not (173)
Prelude, from 1984:
"[Winston Smith's] mind slid away into the labyrinthine world of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself.
That was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink."
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There are (at least) three ways of looking at or measuring how wealth flows to landowners, which all come to the same thing when expressed in £-s-d:
i. The rental income which accrues to them, which can be enjoyed in kind (by living there) or turned into money by renting out the place or selling it.
ii. The value of the benefits which accrue to landowners because of the location, location. location (which is another way of saying that land values are created by the community).
iii. The burden which any landowner places on 'everybody else' (i.e. those members of the community who created the land value in the first place), the external cost to 'everybody else' is of course more or less equal to the benefit accruing to the landowner in i. (see second part of previous link for the maths and logic behind that).
When we look at i. the Home-Owner-ists claim that non-cash income is not income, and when we look at ii. recent purchasers with a mortgage say, not entirely unreasonably, that they are paying for those benefits out of their hard-earned money. However, iii. is the coolest way of looking at it because this way it is irrelevant how any landowner came into ownership - for example, the fact that your neighbour has bought his new television out of his own hard earned - rather than winning it in a raffle or stealing it from a shop - does not give him the moral right to listen to it full blast all night long.
When it comes to LVT, the Homeys flatly deny that they are placing any sort of burden on anybody else (see discussion over at 4liberty) and thus they think they have a clever argument against iii. as well.
Fair enough. We conclude that on Planet Homey, a landowner places no burden on others or on other landowners. To each action is there is no reaction. We can have specialisation without free trade. Black is white.
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The funny thing is, when it comes to increasing our real housing wealth (as opposed to paper wealth) and simply building more houses where people would like them, the NIMBYs are out in force saying that no new housing should be built because the new homeowners (landowners) will place a burden on the existing homeowners (landowners) in that area (farmland isn't really land for these purposes, it's main purposes is just to provide a view as far as NIMBYs are concerned).
On the assumption that you'll never get a Homey or NIMBY to admit to being a raving hypocrite, how do they square this? There argument seems to be that not building houses anywhere near them is the right thing to do for society as a whole because, presumably, the burden this places on existing homeowners far outweighs the benefits to the potential new homeowners.
Now, if that is correct, if we start with the oldest house first, every single house built since then must have placed a burden on the owner of the oldest house (because of agglomeration, the reverse usually applies in real life, which is why land in the centre of towns and cities is infinitely more valuable than farmland, but the Homeys even deny this), and let's assume that either
a) The new houses have now been built. Surely the burden which the new houses place on the older houses is exactly equal to the burden placed by the older houses on the newer ones, in which case the whole thing is a score-draw (notwithstanding the agglomeration benefits to owners of old and new and the fact that the more housing we have, by and large, the happier we are)? or
b) The new housing is refused planning and does not get built. Then there are the burdens which the existing homeowners place on the owner of the farmland who'd love to get planning, and on the people who are thus forced to live further away, in a less desirable area, in more cramped or more expensive accommodation etc, which must, by any stretch of the imagination, also be pretty hefty and ball-park, those burdens are equivalent to the current value of the existing housing, i.e. the benefits which accrue to existing homeowners in any area.
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So when it comes to arguing against LVT, land owners place no burden on others; but when it comes to arguing against new housing they do. If you tried to programme a computer with this sort of stuff, it would cease to function.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
18:31
21
comments
Labels: Home-Owner-Ism, KLN, Logic
Those adoption league tables
From The Telegraph:
According to the league tables, published by the Department for Education, Hackney, in east London, had the worst record in the country. Just 43 per cent of children in Hackney, one of London’s most deprived boroughs, were placed with adoptive parents within one year. Among the other poor performers was Brent, on 52 per cent, Nottinghamshire on 55 per cent, and Derby and the East Riding of Yorkshire both on 57 per cent.
In York, however, 100 per cent of judged to be suitable for adoption children were placed with new families within one year. It was followed by South Tyneside on 96 per cent, Hartlepool on 95 per cent and Portsmouth and Windsor and Maidenhead on 94 per cent.
Hackney last and York first? That set alarm bells ringing, seeing as of how Hackney is a 'deprived' and 'diverse' borough of London and York is quite posh and white. All things being equal, we'd expect there to be more children up for adoption but fewer suitable sets of parents in the former and the opposite in the latter, so these two extremes are hardly surprising.
But does this theory stack up in practice? To find out, I downloaded the adoption and deprivation tables (see below) and compiled the [overall deprivation ranking] and the [percentage of children placed with adoptive parents within 12 months] for the 117 areas which appear in both tables and discovered that the coefficiant correlation is (only) 24%, i.e. the more deprived an area, the less likely a child is to be adopted within 12 months, which is what we expected.
Here's the table, click to enlarge:
So now we know.
Sources:
Department of Education Children in care and adoption performance tables
DCLG, Multiple Deprivation Tables, via The Guardian.
Posted by
Mark Wadsworth
at
13:02
15
comments
Labels: Adoption, statistics
Fun Online Polls: EU Referendum & St Paul's evictions
On a very high turnout (thank you everybody who took part), the result in last week's Fun Online Poll was pretty conclusive:
The UK should...
Leave the EU - 80%
Renegotiate the terms of its membership - 14%
Remain a member of the EU on current terms - 5%
Which cheered me up - but the problem is, the more of these polls there are showing that a majority want "Out", the less likely we are to have a proper Referendum. And if the polls show that a majority are happy to stay "In", then there's no need for a Referendum, is there?
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Turning to more up to the minute matters, "The City of London Corporation is to hand [the protesters camping outside St Paul's] letter warning that High Court action will be taken unless the campsite is cleared within 48 hours".
Not much of a threat, is it, realistically?
So that's this week's Fun Online Poll: Should the St Paul's protesters be evicted?
Vote here or use the widget in the sidebar.