tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post8022812874519545778..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: "Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're not nearing collapse"Mark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-15580220444916334952014-09-07T21:40:22.209+01:002014-09-07T21:40:22.209+01:00"If it was sunny yesterday, it will more than..."If it was sunny yesterday, it will more than likely be sunny tomorrow etc."<br /><br />You obviously don't live in Wales.Bayardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15211150959757982948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-84539920560288528962014-09-07T19:27:21.715+01:002014-09-07T19:27:21.715+01:00G, they were right because they extrapolated, that...G, they were right because they extrapolated, that's neither right nor wrong, it is a reasonable assumption.<br /><br />If it was sunny yesterday, it will more than likely be sunny tomorrow etc.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-77690181999151330822014-09-07T19:05:38.646+01:002014-09-07T19:05:38.646+01:00" the LtG model has been surprisingly accurat..." the LtG model has been surprisingly accurate so far"<br /><br />being accurate for the wrong reasons does not count, does it?Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11007306140530173428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-26630561116990493882014-09-05T19:02:37.935+01:002014-09-05T19:02:37.935+01:00RM, It seems pretty simple to me: the Grauniad is ...RM, It seems pretty simple to me: the Grauniad is saying the former (i.e. stating the bleedin' obvious), but seeking to imply the latter (whilst not meaning anything of the sort, as you point out).Bayardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15211150959757982948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-4019894123967292492014-09-05T16:32:48.772+01:002014-09-05T16:32:48.772+01:00I find the Limits to Growth stuff quite interestin...I find the Limits to Growth stuff quite interesting. It was one of the first models to take a system dynamics approach to economics. Most economics models take a general equilibrium. Which is why most economics models can explain how a crisis happened after the event but can't forecast one.<br /><br />In contrast a dynamic model can actually forecast a crisis. It might get the timing wrong but that's another matter. As it happens the LtG model has been surprisingly accurate so far given that it originally came out 40 years ago. here's hoping it doesn't continue, since if it does, we're screwed.Derekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06296053477905542366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-24796007664530634142014-09-05T14:00:00.849+01:002014-09-05T14:00:00.849+01:00TS- agreed, the why is missing. The Malthusian rea...TS- agreed, the why is missing. The Malthusian reason why there are limits to growth are utter bollocks, as proven by history yet continue to be argued under various guises. The Georgist "limit to growth" as an artificial barrier casued by missallocation of resources, private expropriation of rent, and huge burdens on productive enterprise is very (or at least much more) real.ThomasBHallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08998362261169422976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-39015837259153373332014-09-05T11:23:41.953+01:002014-09-05T11:23:41.953+01:00The key question with all predictions/results is &...The key question with all predictions/results is "why"? That data matches your predictions is sometimes meaningless because it could just be that you got lucky so far.<br /><br />So, what's the "why"? Why does it turn in 2020? Are they assuming that resources run out? Or what?<br /><br />And how do you predict anything in 1970, just after Borlaug made his super-efficient wheat? How did they factor in GM taking off? Were they using the oil predictions that we now know weren't right?<br /><br />The huge growth happened because of neoliberalism winning. China and India have had booms since they ditched Mao's and Gandhi's ideas about planned economies.Tim Almondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13369256383976094670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-4080855497711731032014-09-05T10:40:22.687+01:002014-09-05T10:40:22.687+01:00Bit off topic, but I think there is skullduggery b...Bit off topic, but I think there is skullduggery behind the Guardain's phrase "comment is free". If they're simply saying it doesn't cost anything to make a comment, then that's so obvious it goes without saying. So that's not what they're saying.<br /><br />What I think they ARE TRYING to suggest is that FREEDOM OF SPEECH reigns in the Guardian's comment section, which of course it doesn't. Comments after Guardian articles are more heavily censored than in any other paper, far as I can see.Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.com