tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post4162969777899182840..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: Place your bets now.Mark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-15481886220377146522021-05-13T14:35:50.447+01:002021-05-13T14:35:50.447+01:00PW, that's good logic, but a brave shout nonet...PW, that's good logic, but a brave shout nonetheless.<br /><br />JH, the vaccines seem to be of overall benefit to me. I just accept that as a given.<br /><br />DCB, we know that covid-19 deaths are overcounted for weird political reasons, which is why it is better just to look at "total deaths". The ONS doesn't muck about with hard data like that.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-33600705256706392042021-05-13T09:45:50.781+01:002021-05-13T09:45:50.781+01:00Derek: "How much it'll affect the figures...Derek: "How much it'll affect the figures is anybody's guess."<br />Alternatively: How much it'll affect the figures depends on who's compiling them and to whose advantage.The Janniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13079381718278953267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-42453719729362611302021-05-13T06:01:45.095+01:002021-05-13T06:01:45.095+01:00Poison everyone equally? Good socialist ethics.Poison everyone equally? Good socialist ethics.James Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14525082702330365464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-3778534829523442162021-05-12T22:23:11.004+01:002021-05-12T22:23:11.004+01:00my bet: 2021 deaths will be below last year's ...my bet: 2021 deaths will be below last year's but above 2015-2019 average because we will have another wave of deaths (I hope it will be the last one).<br /><br />my reasoning is as follows: recently number of cases of almost all variants have been going down except for the indian one that has been going up, for a while aggregate number of new cases was going down, but now it seems that for about a week the indian one is growing faster than the others are falling. which means that even if Astra Zeneca is successful at suppressing the indian variant, which is the optimistic scenario, maybe even likely, the rest of the population will not be vaccinated in time to prevent a new wave. Of course pessimistic scenarios assume yet another variant of concern to appear or AZ not giving enough protection against the Indian one.<br /><br />and when we have a lot cases, even if it is mostly among the youngsters, some of the vaccinated oldies will catch it and die.<br /><br />regardles of the next few months, I have been rooting for NHS - they are doing a great job with the rollout and the vaccines really appear to work :)<br />Piotr Wasikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05460291916106181718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-71454104844090596612021-05-12T20:07:39.329+01:002021-05-12T20:07:39.329+01:00D, that's a brave shout for so early in the ga...D, that's a brave shout for so early in the game!Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-54115992004936337232021-05-12T16:26:20.118+01:002021-05-12T16:26:20.118+01:00There might be a bit of a dip in the death rate fo...There might be a bit of a dip in the death rate for 2021 for the reasons that you mention. However it'll probably be offset to some extent by "recovered" Covid and "Long Covid" sufferers dying from the effects of increased heart rates, blood pressure, depression, etc. a bit earlier than they would otherwise have done.<br /><br />How much it'll affect the figures is anybody's guess.Derekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06296053477905542366noreply@blogger.com