tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post2064038824215212564..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: Sucker BetsMark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-89973714057498681502013-10-18T15:16:28.727+01:002013-10-18T15:16:28.727+01:00TS, are you sure about those odds?
Approx. 20,000...TS, are you sure about those odds?<br /><br />Approx. 20,000 baby boys born each year in Wales (800,000 babies a year in UK divided by 62 million x 3 million). <br /><br />Let's assume Welsh Rugby squad 30 men with a national playing career of 5 years (? guess) = 6 new intake per year.<br /><br />20,000 รท 6 = 3,333<br /><br />So without any prior knowledge, we know the odds are 1 in 3,333.<br /><br />Like Bruce says, we can halve that for "babies in families mad about rugby" call it 1 in 1,666.<br /><br />The punter got quite good odds if you ask me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-65261851656307442552013-10-18T14:35:11.291+01:002013-10-18T14:35:11.291+01:00Bruce,
Those are very good points. A football mad...Bruce,<br /><br />Those are very good points. A football mad family, especially if the dad is a good club player would shorten the odds.<br /><br />Especially when you consider that many Welsh boys choose rugby (there's nearly as many Welsh rugby club players as English ones).Tim Almondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13369256383976094670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-6231936189279440322013-10-18T13:26:58.591+01:002013-10-18T13:26:58.591+01:00The odds are likely to be better than 10000-1 as n...The odds are likely to be better than 10000-1 as not every baby boy has an equal chance of playing for Wales one day. A mix of genetics (sporty parents), the family's interest in football (which has to be assumed given the granddad's bet) and even noticing the lad's great motor skills at 18 months would increase the changes. I reckon 2500-1 was not such bad odds.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15378996822088709667noreply@blogger.com