tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post147366857264368213..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: 'What is not seen' or Perhaps it is?Mark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-49872086373049629992016-10-30T15:12:13.488+00:002016-10-30T15:12:13.488+00:00L, as B says, estimating lost output at £100,000 p...L, as B says, estimating lost output at £100,000 per unemployed worker is ridiculous, that is off the scale, seeing as the average value added per existing worker is more like £50,000. <br /><br />Clearly, the lost output will be approx. twice what the wage would be; somebody on the NMW of £10,000 might generate output of £20,000. If you reduce the NMW to £5 an hour, there will of course be a lot more jobs, but the total value of output per extra worker will be about £15,000, and so on.<br /><br />So the big unknown is how many extra jobs there would be, and we will never find that out without reducing means testing of benefits.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-50426004789090853452016-10-27T09:28:37.131+01:002016-10-27T09:28:37.131+01:00MW / B I am now confused!!! :-)MW / B I am now confused!!! :-)Lolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586735342675041312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-9373250590303120892016-10-27T07:51:10.638+01:002016-10-27T07:51:10.638+01:00"So, is £45Bn the true cost of the National L..."So, is £45Bn the true cost of the National Living Wage?"<br /><br />Yes if <br />a) the removal of the NLW would cause the percentage of NEETS to fall from 17% to 10% and<br />b) each of those 460,000 extra jobs contributed £100,000 to the economy. (From the ONS, there are approximately 6.6M Britons in the 16-24 age range. 7% of that is 460,000. £45Bn divided by 460,000, say 450,000 to make things simpler, is £100,000) How many 16-24 year olds are going to contribute £100,000 a year to GDP in their first job?<br /><br />So no.<br /><br />Of course, removal of the NLW might produce an uplift in GDP in other age ranges, but the £45Bn is not a useful figure for estimating that as it a) appears to be made up and b) refers only to the 16-24 age range.Bayardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15211150959757982948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-73132083324122741692016-10-27T05:57:13.555+01:002016-10-27T05:57:13.555+01:00Easy to estimate.
Low paid worker would get maybe...Easy to estimate.<br /><br />Low paid worker would get maybe £7,500 a year wage, the value of his output is double that, tops = £15,000. <br /><br />How many additional jobs would there be if no NMW? I dunno, call it 2 million? <br /><br />2m x £15 = £30 billion.<br /><br />So £45 bn is a large number but plausible, being about 2% of GDP.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.com