Tuesday 9 June 2009

Were we all racist before 1997?

I personally don't have any particularly strong opinions about immigration or racism one way or another, but I have noticed that the minute anybody, such as UKIP, of whom I am a member, mentions 'immigration' they are immediately branded as 'racist', which is a bad thing to be of course (my view being, there is very little that a government to 'combat racism' directly, and all this political correctness just makes it worse). While it is true that racists oppose immigration, I refuse to accept that the reverse automatically holds.

Anyway, if a political party said that they were going to reduce immigration by two-thirds, would they be branded racist? Almost certainly. If a political party said that they were going to reduce immigration to pre-1997 levels, would they be branded racist? Probably. But I simply do not remember people complaining bitterly before 1997 how restrictive the UK's immigration controls were and that we should let more people in; or indeed that Labour's 1997 election campaign promised that net immigration would treble. Which begs the question ... were we all racist before 1997?

Let's look at the official statistics* to put all this in perspective. It's nice to start with emigration of British Citizens (because that's pretty uncontroversial). Gross emigration is the red series and net emigration is the green one (click to enlarge):
Then let's look at immigration from Old Commonwealth (that's the term used in the official statistics, which I assume means Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and the 'EU 15', i.e. Western Europe excl. the UK. Both gross and net immigration appear to have drifted upwards since 1991, but the figures are far lower than the number of British Citizens emigrating, the bulk of whom probably go to these countries, so that's nothing to get excited about either (click to enlarge).
Then there's gross and net immigration from the New Commonwealth (Pakistan, Bangladesh, India plus African countries); the newest ten EU countries (Eastern Europe plus Cyprus and Malta) and 'rest of the world' (i.e. non-Commonwealth Africa and the USA). The figures were low and stable until 1997, and gross immigration has more than doubled and net immigration more than trebled since then (click to enlarge).
You could argue that net immigration from these countries is 'only' twice as much as the net emigration of British Citizens and nothing to worry about in a country of sixty million people.

You could argue that forty per cent of new arrivals from these countries end up in social housing** (the ones who get social housing are less likely to leave again), assuming two immigrants per household (they start having babies once they're here) that makes 50,000 cases per year; with four million units of social housing and a turnover of one-in-twenty units per year only 200,000 households make it to the top of the list every year and thus that a quarter of available social housing goes to immigrants.

You can argue anything you like, to be honest, I'm just trying to put it all in perspective.

* All these charts are based on Table 2.01a taken from 2 Series (TIM calendar year) available at the NSO Website.

** The official version is '60% are in privately rented accommodation' - heck knows how many of these are in privately rented accommodation but getting Housing Benefit, which costs us even more than social housing, but hey.

11 comments:

Witterings from Witney said...

Mark,

You make the classic mistake of not viewing these tables in a mirror so that the downward trend can be seen!

Mark Wadsworth said...

WFW, but a downward trend would be A Bad Thing because it reduces 'diversity', innit!

sobers said...

Do these figures include asylum seekers?

John B said...

Hang on, doesn't your social housing vs private rented split assume that no non-Old Commonwealth immigrant ever buys a house? That would seem to be, at the very least, radically at odds with the people I know who've been here more than a couple of years.

Mark Wadsworth said...

S, almost certainly yes, but they are just the official figures (as wildly understated as they may be).

'Asylum seeker' is a meaningless term anyway; if somebody thinks it will help their case to claim asylum then they will do so. I know that I would, if I were in their shoes.

Anonymous said...

Sooner or later you will notice that the powerful growing countries look after their own - China , India etc.
Even if you like being at the back of the affirmative action queue some day you might find people close to you might look out for you.
Racism.

JuliaM said...

"..the minute anybody, such as UKIP, of whom I am a member, mentions 'immigration' they are immediately branded as 'racist'.."

Which seems to overlook the fact that immigration doesn't just mean 'brown/black/yellow people coming here'....

Mark Wadsworth said...

JohnB, the older ones do, but "The study found that more than 60 per cent of people who have come to the UK in the last five years live in private rented accommodation."

How many people from poorer countries could afford to rock up in the UK in the last five years and buy a house? About zero per cent I'd guess.

Stan said...

Good post. Couple of points. Do your figures include illegal immigrants - conservatively estimated to be around 2,000,000?

Secondly, as someone who lives in an area that receives a huge number of immigrants - Slough - I have first hand experience of the effects it has on social housing, jobs and education and I can assure you it is not good whatever the chattering classes might say.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Stan, like I said, the charts are based on NSO data, all subject to huge margin of error and illegals almost certainly are on top of that.

Like you say, immigration doesn't much affect the chattering classes - who superficially think it's great that they can now get cleaning ladies, plumbers and child minders and so on much more cheaply. What they don't take into account is that every English person who stays on benefits cost them far, far more than what they save on a cleaning lady, plumber or childminder.

CityUnslicker said...

A very sensible post Mark. Only with rational discussion of facts, over emotive use of racism and political correctnes, can we counter the spin sold to us all by the Champagne socialists.