tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post2557096002185712211..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: UK ExportsMark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-52103492533810766742019-02-11T08:21:10.727+00:002019-02-11T08:21:10.727+00:00My view is that there will be a short dip i GDP a...My view is that there will be a short dip i GDP as we all sort ourselves out, and then - assuming the gov't doesn't mess up, we will experience rising GDP as tariffs and regulationism are slashed.Lolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586735342675041312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-31608641071112479202019-02-10T18:37:35.762+00:002019-02-10T18:37:35.762+00:00RM, nice one.
B, that is their whole aim, to puni...RM, nice one.<br /><br />B, that is their whole aim, to punish the naughty, naughty UK by any means possible.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-1868665622093764972019-02-10T18:13:58.007+00:002019-02-10T18:13:58.007+00:00As Mark said in an earlier post, despite the effor...As Mark said in an earlier post, despite the efforts of Project Fear, Brexit is not going to have a huge effect "assuming the UK government doesn't do something really stupid, which we can't rule out". As he also pointed out, we've already weathered a 20% devaluation of the pound.<br /><br />However, one of the problems with Project Fear is that this sort of thing is a self-fulfilling prophesy. I am old enough to remember the sugar shortage that was caused by no more than rumours of an impending sugar shortage and the resulting panic buying and stockpiling. So it is very likely that the dire predictions of food and drugs shortages that are part of Project Fear will create the very shortages they are croaking about. Ditto any sector of the economy that depends on confidence: tell people enough times that the economy is going to go down the pan and it will: as they seek to take evasive action, they generate the very conditions they are trying to avoid. There should be a special place in Hell for the proponents of Project Fear for precisely this reason.Bayardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15211150959757982948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-85384666323938861092019-02-10T17:36:34.376+00:002019-02-10T17:36:34.376+00:00There's an interesting study just out which cl...There's an interesting study just out which claims a ten percentage point increase in tariffs on all World trade would lead to a cut in World GDP of just under 2%. See: <br /><br />https://voxeu.org/article/macroeconomic-implications-global-trade-war<br /><br />That ties up with my gut feeling. I.e. there'll definitely be a fall in UK GDP as a result of Brexit, but once the dust has settled, it won't be dramatic. Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-60936191432759713092019-02-10T17:11:38.926+00:002019-02-10T17:11:38.926+00:00Econ 101 - comparative advantage.
Do the things y...Econ 101 - comparative advantage.<br /><br />Do the things you are best at and buy in the rest - we all do it personally, as 'households', as businesses and as industrial 'sectors' because it makes sense.Shineyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13281261419328886986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-54796997865130346282019-02-10T15:27:20.626+00:002019-02-10T15:27:20.626+00:00Yup, it's a natural progression.Yup, it's a natural progression.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.com