tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post1201040585874723519..comments2024-03-05T10:52:24.691+00:00Comments on Mark Wadsworth: George Osborne does a bit of Indian Bicycle Marketing, Ed Balls goes off-scriptMark Wadsworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-25267344720153132132014-04-12T19:55:06.495+01:002014-04-12T19:55:06.495+01:00B, you have to read Paul's link.
I think qui...B, you have to read Paul's link. <br /><br />I think quite possibly a UK government would get away with a price crash when it first takes over, because it can blame that on the previous government, a long as they start ticking up a year or so before the next election.Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-12957161131027018252014-04-12T18:04:10.616+01:002014-04-12T18:04:10.616+01:00"In other words, a UK government could make p..."In other words, a UK government could make people worse off for four years, then make them better off for one year and win the next election."<br /><br />Does that mean there could be a land price crash in year three or four and the party of government still win the election in year five or is a fall in land prices the unforgivable sin that is never forgotten?Bayardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15211150959757982948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-53140829033703691852014-04-12T13:40:49.926+01:002014-04-12T13:40:49.926+01:00@MW. Indeed...it was ever thus.
FWIW Bartels writ...@MW. Indeed...it was ever thus.<br /><br />FWIW <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/chairs.pdf" rel="nofollow">Bartels writes:</a><br />"We find, however, that the voters cannot manage the task of competent retrospection. They forget all about most previous experience with the incumbents and vote solely on how they feel about the most recent months. <br />Knowing that, governments pander to the voters near election time, showering them with one-time benefits atypical of their performance in office. Governments are retained or removed, then, not because they drift away from the voters ideologically or because they have performed poorly on average during their term, but most often because of last minute pork or unexpected misfortunes unrelated to their performance in office—a high-stakes game of musical chairs." [abstract]<br /><br />So having come up with nothing that's going to improve things by the time of the 2015 election in their first two years the strategy should logically be to get the economy off the statistical floor again no matter how, [ease off on public investment cuts and to get traction by 2015, get house prices moving] and hope that the inevitable rise in interest rates that has to follow on is delayed at least until after the election. Effectively doing an end run around the electorate [aka suckers].Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-76123632200433838972014-04-11T21:36:45.649+01:002014-04-11T21:36:45.649+01:00P, I like your concept of the 6-month time frame.
...P, I like your concept of the 6-month time frame.<br /><br />In other words, a UK government could make people worse off for four years, then make them better off for one year and win the next election.<br /><br />So over five years, people are still worse off than five years ago but still vote the same f-ers back in.<br /><br />It worked for the Tories for 18 years, it worked for Labour for 13 years...Mark Wadsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733511175178098449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1141932539860553199.post-87057846641573850182014-04-11T15:39:39.022+01:002014-04-11T15:39:39.022+01:00A dead cat bounced. That's the economy. That i...A dead cat bounced. That's the economy. That it only bounced a bit [the sub standard nature of the bounce after being dropped from such a great height is a worry] is because of two features in the main. <br />Firstly, 'austerity'/departmental cuts were effectively put on hold in 2012/13. So we were hitting the economy over the head a bit prior to that and stopped for a break in the last financial year. Economy responded in mildly positive fashion to said break in punishment.<br />Secondly, obviously the 'right to buy/sell' has delivered the headline growth and optimism the government sought. <br />Now they hope and pray that wages really do start increasing faster than prices at least 6 months before the election since the electorate traditionally only has a 6 month memory capacity[empirically supported in the US at any rate] where the economy is concerned and will vote according to the perceived improvement or worsening of the their circumstances as appropriate in that time frame, regardless of whether they are worse off or not than when they voted for the tossers in the first place :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com